When will the next stock market crash occur?

We are going to have a stock market crash, and possibly a recession, during President Donald Trump's first term. That is inevitable; the question is when. With this blog post, I’m going to try to let you know when far enough in advance that you can take action if you wish. I will update this page as I get more information.

I’m using the stock market crash on October 19, 1987 (United States) and subsequent recession (from July 1990 to March 1991) as my model. Note that anybody younger than 50 is unlikely to know much about these events. Note that I did not own any stock in October 1987 so I wasn't directly affected.

I successfully predicted the July 1990 recession in March 1990. I didn't think of it until September 1990 when a colleague reminded me that I had told him in March that there would be a recession. One of the problems with recessions is that you don't know when they start because it takes several months for the government economists to determine that a recession did indeed take place.

I do not expect the next crash to be as severe as the one in 1987. The stock market did eventually recover to where it was before the crash so people who had invested before the crash and then ignored it were made whole. I will discuss this in further updates: How long will it be before the stock market recovers from the crash?

July 19, 2018 At this point, my best guess is the 4th quarter of 2019 for the stock market crash.

Before making any investment decisions based on my advice, please read my Investment advice disclaimer.

Donald Trump won't deport anyone immediately

Donald Trump is not going to deport anyone "immediately." Before someone can be deported, they are entitled to a court hearing. However, there is currently a backlog of 500,000 cases. Maybe Trump should work on increasing the number of judges working on these cases.

He is also choosing to ignore that Barack Obama has deported more people than any other President, including many of the criminals that Donald thinks are still here.

Smartphone videos are causing rising racial tensions

I'm seeing comments blaming President Barack Obama for rising racial tensions. This is all wrong. It's the smartphone with its portable video camera and social media that has made the difference.

I don't think racial problems and the resulting discord are any worse than they were 10 years ago. I think, due to all the video cameras in people's hands, that racial situations are more visible with the ugliness of police brutality out there for all to see.

Ultimately, this is a good thing because maybe we can end racism, homophobia, harassment of immigrants and other evils once and for all.

Do Republicans really want another 9/11?

When I read this story from CBS News, I was struck by what was implied but not said: The Republicans want ISIS* to launch a 9/11-style attack before the mid-term elections so they can use it to campaign against President Obama.

Sadly, the Republican party has become the party of tearing down America and attempting to blame this destruction on its opponents. Will you agree that Republicans want to reduce the deficit and the national debt? Then why did they shut down the Federal Government last year, costing the economy $24 billion (source: Time magazine)?

I, for one, am hoping that the Republicans are not successful in encouraging another 9/11-style attack.

* ISIS stands for Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (but is alternatively translated as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria orIslamic State in Iraq and al-Sham).

60 years ago: UNIVAC predicts the President

60 years ago on election night, a UNIVAC I computer was used to predict the outcome of the presidential election. The computer predicted the correct outcome early in the evening but its operators were skeptical because the race between Democrat Adlai Stevenson and Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower was perceived to be too close to call at that point.

Here is the full story from National Public Radio.