Guns: One area where the U.S. is different

A note about mass shootings. My son noticed one thing different between the U.S. and other countries with strict gun laws: In the U.S., when there is a shooting, there is an immediate, overwhelming response by trained and armed police officers. In Cincinnati, the September 6 mass shooting on Fountain Square is a perfect example.

By the way, until there’s an official determination, my opinion is that the Fountain Square shooting was a suicide-by-cop situation. It’s sad that innocent bystanders also died.

Click here for stories about the Fountain Square shooting.

Sometimes, innocent people have to die

All too often, innocent people have to die before action is taken. Here’s another sad example. In this case, both a limousine company and a highway department are at fault.

"The crash about 170 miles north of New York City came three years after another deadly stretch-limo wreck in New York state spurred calls for Gov. Andrew Cuomo to examine such vehicles’ safety. There is no evidence the state took any steps to do so."

Headline: Cuomo says limo shouldn’t have been on road

To Pope Francis: There is no "Devil"

Pope Francis believes that people need to pray daily to protect the Roman Catholic Church from the Devil. We can argue whether there's is a God or not, but it's clear to me that "The Devil" does not exist except as a bogeyman cooked up by Catholics and other religions. When something bad happens to the Pope, maybe he should look at the decisions he made and not blame the Devil for it.

AP Story here.

When will the next stock market crash occur?

We are going to have a stock market crash, and possibly a recession, during President Donald Trump's first term. That is inevitable; the question is when. With this blog post, I’m going to try to let you know when far enough in advance that you can take action if you wish. I will update this page as I get more information.

I’m using the stock market crash on October 19, 1987 (United States) and subsequent recession (from July 1990 to March 1991) as my model. Note that anybody younger than 50 is unlikely to know much about these events. Note that I did not own any stock in October 1987 so I wasn't directly affected.

I successfully predicted the July 1990 recession in March 1990. I didn't think of it until September 1990 when a colleague reminded me that I had told him in March that there would be a recession. One of the problems with recessions is that you don't know when they start because it takes several months for the government economists to determine that a recession did indeed take place.

I do not expect the next crash to be as severe as the one in 1987. The stock market did eventually recover to where it was before the crash so people who had invested before the crash and then ignored it were made whole. I will discuss this in further updates: How long will it be before the stock market recovers from the crash?

July 19, 2018 At this point, my best guess is the 4th quarter of 2019 for the stock market crash.

Before making any investment decisions based on my advice, please read my Investment advice disclaimer.

There is no underlying value to Bitcoin and many other cyber currencies. If I own gold, Nvidia stock or a U.S. Treasury Note, there is an underlying asset that will always have value. The value of Bitcoin is determined by the Greater Fool Theory. In this case, the theory says that the value of Bitcoin will only rise if there is someone more foolish than you are buying it.

I saw this in the '80s with farmland in Illinois. The only way farmland was a good investment then was if the value continued to increase. Eventually, the bubble burst and many people lost a lot of money. Bitcoin is no different. Anyone who bought Bitcoin at $19,000 each realizes that.

When I posted this on LinkedIn, someone asked, "But what about cash, specifically, United States dollars?" This isn't about cash, this is about investments. If you consider Bitcoin an alternative investment, then why are you calling it a currency?

Air-powered cars? Not energy efficient enough (Update)

Three years ago, I wrote a post saying that air-powered cards are not energy efficient enough to be used for most transportation uses. Three years later, only one thing has changed: Guy Nègre, the inventor of the air-powered car, died on June 24, 2016 (75 years old) without seeing his invention reach commercial success.

Zero Pollution Motors, a U.S. licensee of the technology, promises that you can buy a car next year (2019). It's always next year; in 2019, I expect that it will be 2020. I hope that anyone who made a deposit on a new car in 2015 has gotten their money back.

There is talk about Tata in India selling an air-powered car in 2020. However, the video I saw showed both three-wheeled and four-wheeled cars, indicating that the design isn't far along yet. (In the United States, a three-wheeled car is considered a motorcycle for regulatory purposes, which have much weaker security requirements than four-wheeled cars do.)

One thing the YouTube videos mention is that the cars are as light as possible. If these light cars were powered by a gasoline engine or an electric battery, they would have good gas mileage or range on a charge. Comparing these light cars to a conventional sedan is preposterous. I am getting 45+ miles per gallon in my 2017 Honda Accord Hybrid and it's a good sized car.

Scam alert: Do not make any investment in a company developing an air-powered car or give them a deposit on a new car. Likely, you will never see a return for your money. Shiva Vencat, CEO of Zero Pollution Motors, LLC has at least two funding sites trying to raise money.

I stand by my claim three years ago: Air-powered cars are not energy efficient enough for everyday use by Americans or Indians. I hope that, now that Mr. Nègre has died, this concept will fade into oblivion.

iPhone bug alert: No notice when voicemail full

With an Apple iPhone running iOS version 11.3, there is no notice if your voicemail fills up. Callers will get this notice: "The mailbox is full and cannot accept any messages at this time. Goodbye."

A previous version of iOS would tell you when your voicemail was full, but only if you actually went into your voicemail (i.e. just opening the Phone app was not sufficient to get the notification).

To reduce your voicemail so that your phone can accept new messages, you must delete some messages then scroll to the bottom and clear the Deleted Messages. You may also want to check Blocked Messages and delete them as well. I believe that deleted Blocked Messages will go into Deleted Messages.