Sunday, November 9, 2014

On Facebook? Buy an ad and quit beating up your supporters!

Years ago, I was Facebook friends with WVXU public radio and, of course, received their Facebook posts. Then they started a begathon and started bombarding me with solicitations on Facebook. This despite my wife and I being sustaining members, meaning that we automatically donate to WXVU on a regular basis. The solicitations became so annoying that I stopped following them although I'm still friends with them.

Yesterday, I unfollowed three more Facebook friends who have been recently bombarding me with fundraising solicitations. It wasn't just one event or fundraiser; it was a whole group of things. I'll miss their regular posts.

If you are involved with an organization on Facebook, don't use it to beat up your supporters with endless solicitations. Buy a Facebook ad instead. For $50, you can reach out to tens of thousands of people, many of whom may not even know you exist. You'll get better results without losing good will with your dedicated supporters.

Monday, October 13, 2014

The Cincinnati Reds' roster as it stands today

The tables below include the players with contracts with and/or under control by the Cincinnati Reds and their status today. I have tried to organize these tables in a way to make it easy to find the information you're looking for. Within each table, players are sorted first by the year their contract ends; second (descending) by their 2014 salary; and third alphabetically by name. Well-known players (i.e. the starting pitchers and relief pitchers as well as the starting position players) are listed first with less-well-known players included later.

Please let me know, either with a comment or by email, if you find any errors or omissions. Note that I do not intend to update this as contracts are signed, etc. This is intended to be a snapshot of the situation today.

Starting Pitchers
PlayerPosition
Year
Contract
Ends
2014
Salary
(Millions)
2015
Salary
(Millions)/
Status
Comment
Johnny Cueto
RSP
2014
$10.00
$10.00
Reds option for 2015
Mat Latos
RSP
2014
$7.25
Arb.
Mike Leake
RSP
2014
$5.93
Arb.
Alfredo Simon
RSP
2014
$1.50
Arb.
Tony Cingrani
LSP
2014
?
?
Under control
Homer Bailey
RSP
2019
$9.00
$10.00
Mutual option for 2020

Relief and Closing Pitchers
PlayerPosition
Year
Contract
Ends
2014
Salary
(Millions)
2015
Salary
(Millions)/
Status
Comment
Aroldis Chapman
LCL
2014
$7.84
Arb.
Logan Ondrusek
RRP
2014
$1.45
Arb.
J.J. Hoover
RRP
2014
$0.52
?
Under control
Nick Christiani
RRP
2014
$0.50
?
Carlos Contreras
RRP
2014
$0.50
?
Under control
Jose Diaz
RRP
2014
$0.50
?
Under control
Sean Marshall
LRP
2015
$5.50
$6.50
Manny Parra
LRP
2015
$2.00
$3.50
Sam LeCure
RRP
2016
$1.20
$1.85

Starting Position Players
PlayerPosition
Year
Contract
Ends
2014
Salary
(Millions)
2015
Salary
(Millions)/
Status
Comment
Ryan Ludwick
LF
2014
$8.50
$9.00
Mutual option for 2015
Chris Heisey
LF
2014
$1.76
Arb.
Ramon Santiago
2B
2014
$1.10
FA
Jack Hannahan
1B
2014
$1.00
$4.00
Reds option for 2015
Zack Cozart
SS
2014
$0.60
Arb.

Todd Frazier
3B
2014
$0.60
Arb.

Devin Mesoraco
C
2014
$0.53
Arb.
Tucker Barnhart
C
2014
$0.50
?
Under control
Billy Hamilton
CF
2014
$0.50
?
Under control
Donald Lutz
1B
2014
$0.50
?
Under control
Jason Bourgeois
LF
2014
?
Arb.
Kris Negron
IF
2014
?
?
Under control
Brayan Pena
C
2015
$0.88
$1.40
Jay Bruce
RF
2016
$10.04
$12.04
Reds option for 2017
Skip Schumaker
IF/OF
2016
$2.00
$2.50
Brandon Phillips
2B
2017
$11.00
$12.00
Joey Votto
1B
2023
$12.00
$14.00
Reds option for 2024

Other Players
PlayerPosition
Year
Contract
Ends
2014
Salary
(Millions)
2015
Salary
(Millions)/
Status
Comment
Trevor Bell
RRP
2014
$0.50
Arb.

Carlos Contreras
RRP
2014
$0.50
?
Under control
Dylan Alexrod
RSP
2014
?
?
Under control
Daniel Corcino
RRP
2014
?
?
Under control
Ryan Dennick
LRP
2014
?
?
Under control
Juan Duran
OF
2014
?
?
Under control
Jake Elmore
OF
2014
?
?
Under control
Édgar González
RRP
2014
?
?
Under control
David Holmberg
LSP
2014
?
?
Under control
Curtis Partch
RRP
2014
?
?
Under control
Yorman Rodriguez
CF
2014
?
?
Under control
Netftali Soto
IF
2014
?
?
Under control
Pedro Villareal
RRP
2014
?
?
Under control
Raisel Iglesias
RSP
2020
$1.21
$1.71


Position Key
Note that many players play more than one position. For example, in 2014, Todd Frazier (3B) played first base as well as playing third base.
1B  First base
2B  Second base
3B  Third base
C  Catcher
CF  Center fielder
IF  Infielder
IF/OF  Infielder/outfielder
LCP  Left-handed closing pitcher
LF  Left fielder
LRP  Left-handed relief pitcher
LSP  Left-handed starting pitcher
OF  Outfielder
RRP  Right-handed relief pitcher
RSP  Right-handed starting pitcher
SS  Shortstop

Salary Abbreviations
?  I don't know the player's salary for 2014 and/or 2015.
Arb.  The player is eligible for arbitration in 2015.
FA  The player will be a free agent in 2015.

Sources
The original source for this information was Major League Baseball.
I used three web pages to compile these tables; one from The Cincinnati Enquirer and two from spotrac (first and second).
I am assuming that this information is in the public domain for non-commercial use.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Today is the second anniversary of this blog

Today marks the second anniversary of this blog with this being the 101st post. Google reports that I have had over 21,200 page views, which is a lot more than I expected. Set your expectations low, and you're more likely to meet them.

I started this blog so that I could post entries and not offend my Facebook friends. I was losing friends due to my posts and that stopped once I started posting away from Facebook.

So let's keep going with this. Originally, I wanted to post daily but I couldn't take the time to do that. I looks like I'm averaging one post per week, but I will try to increase that number over the next year.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

2013 Windows April Fools' joke becomes 2014 Windows reality

"Microsoft skips 'too good' Windows 9, jumps to Windows 10," blared the headline April 1, 2013 on Infoworld's web site.

Today, the real headline is "Microsoft Offers First Peek at Windows 10," confirming that the April Fools' joke is correct: There isn't going to be a Windows 9.

(A tip of the hat to John Gruber who writes Daring Fireball.)

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Milestone today: 20,000 page views



My milestone today: This blog reached 20,000 page views today, with this being the 99th post. I'm not sure what I expected when I published my first post on Oct. 12, 2012 but I am pleasantly surprised that people are finding my posts and reading them. I hope readers are benefiting from my posts. Now, have you sold your stocks yet?

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Sell your stocks now!

Update January 24, 2015: My brother got back into two stocks and an index fund.

Update October 29: The small, -7.4% correction appears to be over and my brother is looking to get back into the stock market. Will there still be a larger correction? I will write another post in November to discuss this. Still, the advice in the last paragraph stands.

My brother, based on my recommendation, sold the index fund and both stocks in his IRA yesterday. Many stock advisors are saying that the S&P 500 is due for a "correction" of 20% to 30% by the end of 2015. But nobody knows when. So, instead of trying to time the peak, he went ahead and sold his index fund and captured a 22% gain.

The problem with waiting is that when you realize that it's time to sell, so does everyone else and it's too late to keep from losing large sums of money. The stock market can drop over 22% in one day, like it did on Black Monday in 1987.

The next step is to find a bond fund that invests in short-term corporate bonds (one to two year maturity) and try to capture a 2% to 3% return until the S&P 500 has its correction. Then we can sell the bond fund and get back into an index fund.

Ultimately, the S&P 500 will undergo its correction and then start heading back up. That's when you get back into stocks. Despite many advisors saying that this is time for that now, it isn't simply because it hasn't hit bottom yet. In my opinion, timing the exact peaks and valleys is really difficult and I don't try to do that. But timing 20% corrections and 20% increases isn't as hard.

Before making any investment decisions based on this blog post, please read my investment advice disclaimer.

I've found rather few investment advisors who are willing to recommend selling 90% or more of your stock holdings at the peak. To me, this is one of the keys to long-term gains in the stock market. If your investment advisor isn't willing to make dramatic changes to your portfolio, you should find one who will.

Scorecard: How good is my prediction?

DateS&P 500 CloseChange From
Recent Peak
Change From
Sale Date
Comment
Sept. 18
2,011.36
Recent peak
Sept. 23
1,982.77
-1.4%
Sale
Sept. 30
1,972.29
-1.9%
-0.5%
One week after sale
Oct. 6
1,964.82
-2.3%
-0.9%
Two weeks after sale
Oct. 13
1,874.74
-6.8%
-5.4%
Three weeks after sale
Oct. 20
1,904.01
-5.3%
-4.0%
Two weeks after sale.
Correction is over.
Oct. 27
1,961.63
-2.5%
-1.1%
Three weeks after sale

Updated Oct. 29 to add figures and a paragraph at the top about getting back into stocks.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Women play a big role in computer programming

The stereotype is that is that all computer programmers are men. This is false. The first programmer was Ada Lovelace, who worked with Charles Babbage. Rear Admiral Grace Hopper is credited with developing COBOL, a programming language still used every day. I work with women all the time who are good programmers. Similar to playing the piano well, some people have a knack for programming but many do not. However, the people who have the talent can be female as well as male.

Walter Isaacson has written a book about the women who were involved with programming ENIAC during World War II. Click here for an excerpt from "The Innovators" that is in the current issue of Fortune magazine.