Sunday, April 19, 2015

Guest blog: Does single payer health care work? No!

A guest blog by Daniel Artz


For those of who think that Single Payer is the solution to America's health care system, here is how Government run single payer health care works. Surprise — it DOESN'T!

Fox News: New VA scandals call into question agency's ability to clean house

Bruce’s response: So you must support Obamacare, which is specifically not single payer.

Daniel: Obamacare may not be the stupidest thing Congress has ever done, but it certainly makes the top ten. And yes, I agree that the American health care system was fundamentally broken BEFORE Obamacare was enacted, but Congress never spent one millisecond on the all important question of WHY. Instead, it simply assumed that the problems with health care were the result of "market failure."

But America hasn't had anything resembling a free market in health care in more than 60 years. It took more than 6 decades of misguided and ill-advised government policy to make health care the wreck that it was, and there is a LOT of blame to go around. The States bear at least part of the blame, with intrusive regulations of the insurance industry and barriers to entry for medical professionals designed and enforced by — who else — medical professionals. Then there are barriers to entry for hospitals and clinics with "certificate of public necessity" requirements and regulations that require unnecessary capital investments that make small hospitals uneconomic.

But the Federal Government created the lion's share of the problems, first when it decided to make employer-paid health insurance a tax-free benefit. This created some very adverse incentives for overuse of medical services. Then we added Medicare and Medicaid, currently accounting for nearly 40% of all demand for medical care, where reimbursements are set not based on demand and supply, but on legislative fiat. And every time Congress discovered that Medicare and Medicaid were going well over budget, it decided to "fix" the problem by reducing reimbursement rates, completely oblivious to the impact that would have on private-payor pricing.

By 2010, reimbursement rates for both Medicare and Medicaid were less than 80% cost of service, meaning that health care providers could ONLY stay solvent by either fraudulently billing in the Government programs, or jacking up pricing way above cost-of-service rates for private payors. Most medical care providers did both.

There were a LOT of other really stupid government policies that helped drive health care costs sky-high, including the bureaucratic cesspool that the FDA has become, driving costs of pharmaceutical products through the roof, and the completely idiotic Medicare Part D that Bush pushed through Congress (President Barack Obama is an incompetent boob, but George W. Bush was no shining light either). So, the health care system was a mess before Obamacare, but the mess was created NOT by "market failure,” but rather by Government failure.

So, in an ill-advised attempt to "solve" a problem largely created by inane government policies, Congress (without a SINGLE vote from a Republican, mind you) decided to double down on stupidity and pass Obamacare. If you take even 30 seconds to think through the premises of Obamacare, you'll see that it can NEVER work as intended. It defies the basic laws of supply and demand. First, the assumption that Obamacare will reduce health care costs by adding 30 million new insureds to the market without doing anything at all about supply of health care providers — does that make any sense at all?

If I told you that Government was going to fund a program to buy free milk, at the rate of a gallon a week, for 30 million Americans who had previously been unable to get milk, do you think that program (adding demand for an additional 1.5 Billion gallons of milk every year) will drive prices for milk up or down? If you foolishly guessed that it would drive prices down, Congratulations, you are foolish enough to be a Democratic Congressman!

Then we get to the whole issue of health insurance. Don't get me wrong, I think health insurance is a good idea, but ONLY for medical care which falls within the essential rationale for insurance — i.e., low risk, high cost events. When you start requiring that insurance cover routine and elective procedures, like annual physicals, contraception, vaccinations, etc., you are grossly misusing insurance, creating very adverse economic incentives, and driving up the costs of BOTH the insurance AND the routine medical care.

Then we get to the "community rating" provisions of Obamacare. Those requirements have NOTHING to do with the efficient and affordable provision of health insurance; they serve only one purpose - to force young, healthy Americans to subsidize older, generally wealthier Americans, a highly regressive intergenerational wealth redistribution scheme. Insane. No, I most definitely do NOT support Obamacare. I think it demonstrates the economic illiteracy and moral bankruptcy of the Democratic Party.

Daniel Artz resides in Sunnyvale, Texas.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Don't say "never again" ever again

Today is the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz by the Soviet Union. Postings on Facebook contain the phrase, "never again." Feel free to remember the Holocaust but don't say "never again." Maybe never again for Jews, but there have been dozens of massacres since World War II, including one this month where between 600 and 2,000 people died.

Wikipedia reports 32 massacres since World War II of 500 or more people although I admit that these aren't on the scale of the Holocaust. The Khmer Rouge tried to match the Germans, killing between 1.4 million and 2 million people with another 650,000 Cambodians starving to death. This happened in the 1970s and 1980s, within the lifetime of many people reading this post.

We as a country simply can't keep this from happening. Massacres will keep on happening indefinitely. Repeatedly saying "never again" will not change this. So don't do it.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Back into stocks

Back on September 22, 2014, my brother, on my recommendation, sold the stocks and S&P 500 index fund in his IRA and captured a gain for 2014. On January 15, he got back into the market with two stocks and an S&P 500 index fund. Here are his new holdings:

Fund or StockSymbolPurchased Share Cost (Jan. 15)
Current Share Value (Jan. 23)
Gain/(Loss) To Date
Percentage Of Total Funds
CepheidCPHD
$53.79
$55.02
2.3%
40.0%
GoProGPRO
$50.08
$52.51
4.9%
38.2%
Stock Index FundFUSEX
$70.55
$72.66
3.0%
18.8%
(S&P 500 Equivalent)
1,992.67
2,051.82
3.0%
CashSPAXX
$1.00
$1.00
0.0%
3.0%
Totals
3.2%
100.0%

The purchased share cost includes the charge for the purchase.

I know the 3.2% gain in eight days is unusual and also unexpected. I'm not excited about it.

Cepheid (CPHD) is a "a molecular diagnostics company [which] develops, manufactures, and markets integrated systems for testing in the clinical and non-clinical markets." One thing that makes their machines different is that the sample being tested stays completely in a testing capsule. There is no need to clean the machine between tests and there is no risk of contaminating the machine with the sample or having cross-contamination between samples.

Cepheid has been awarded a grant of up to $3.3 million to develop a test for Ebola by the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. If this is successful, it will be the fastest test on the market and will cause the stock to appreciate. Of course, in an emergency room situation where the patient must be quarantined if infected, the speed of the test is important.

My brother picked GoPro (GPRO) because the stock dropped 12.2% on January 13 due to an announcement of an Apple patent relating to cameras. I felt that this patent had little or no bearing on GoPro's value and recommended a purchase at the lower value. The stock is up a bit but hasn't fully rebounded.

Why this post? I think I might be good at picking stocks. There's only one way to tell: Actually buy some stocks and post your purchases publicly as a matter of record.

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Milestone today: 30,000 page views

Today, I celebrate 30,000 page views for this blog (according to Google). That's only 101 days since I celebrated 20,000 page views. I'm glad to see that the pace of page views is accelerating. Google is supposed to be filtering bots and scrapers so these should be real people viewing my posts.

When I look at the home page for my blog, Blogger has a "Blog Archive" which isn't an archive, but rather a chronological index. I'm going to look for a format that allows me to separate active posts (those that are still relevant) and archived posts (those that may not be relevant but I want to keep for historical reasons).

I also need to go through my old posts and update them. I will spend more time this year doing that before writing new posts.

Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Teenagers: Don't blindly follow your parents' career choices

Parents: Don't blindly expect your teenager to follow your career choices


Back in the last century, I worked with a consultant fluent with SAP Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Software, Ravi Joshi. Ravi was born and raised in India, where his father worked for the railroad. But Ravi didn't go work for the railroad; he ended up being a highly-paid SAP consultant working in the United States. This is unusual for people in India as many families have a built-in career path: If your father worked for the railroad, it's likely that you will, too. The same thing applies if your father works at a steel mill.

That's not usually the case in the United States, although there are cases of multiple generations of police officers, firefighters and Kentucky coal miners. In the United States, teenagers do have a lot more flexibility in their career choices. This is especially good since many of their parents' careers, like mining coal in Kentucky, are quickly disappearing as well as being dangerous and causing long-term health problems.

A coworker of mine from many years ago wanted to go into the U.S. Army at 17. He lived in Kentucky with his family whom didn't put much emphasis in education. The Army requires a parent's consent to join at 17. This coworker's parents were against it. "Why don't you just work at your uncle's body shop?" his father asked. The body shop had been struggling for years and the future wasn't bright. "There's no need to go anywhere." His parents refused to sign the consent. The coworker ran away from home and never looked back. When he told me this story, he was in his early 30s, working full time and finishing up his bachelor's degree.

So, if you are a teenager, what does this mean to you? You need to look out for your long-term interests, not your parents'. Your parents shouldn't encourage or request that you join the family business, or even the same business that they are working for, right out of high school. Do you have the desire and financial means to get a bachelor's degree or at least an associate's degree? Are there other fields of work that you are interested in? If possible, you should go to college or at least get away from home for a few years. After at least five years of work experience, post college, you (now definitely an adult) can come back to the family business with a wealth of new knowledge to share and a clearer idea of what your goals are in life.

If you are a parent with a teenager, what does this mean to you? You need to look out for the teenager's long-term interests, not yours. Don't encourage or request that the teenager join the family business, or even the same business that you are working for, right out of high school. Does the teenager have the desire and financial means to get a bachelor's degree or at least an associate's degree? Are there other fields of work that the teenager is interested in? If possible, the teenager should go to college or at least get away from home for a few years. After at least five years of work experience, post college, the teenager (now definitely an adult) can come back to the family business with a wealth of new knowledge to share and a clearer idea of what his or her goals are in life.

My personal situation fits this post, although I didn't follow the advice I just gave. After high school, I graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Then, instead of talking to recruiters at the university, I went back home and started working full time for my father, Richard Hobbs, for $100 per month plus room and board. I still think that was a good decision for me as I was not ready to go out in the big world. I did contribute to my father's company and I took over ownership five years later. But I do wonder how my life would have gone if I had interviewed with IBM for a position in Rochester, Minnesota (I still have the telegram they sent me). In retrospect, I would have thrived in Minnesota.

If you know me, you are suspicious of the timing of this. I know a situation that this addresses. I am gently hoping that someone reads this post and that it gives them something to discuss with their parents, spouse and teenager, who is rapidly becoming an adult.

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Footnote: I normally don't mention people by name in my blog posts, but I would like to get reconnected to Ravi Joshi. The last I heard, he was working in the Detroit, Michigan area. I tried to contact him after Sept. 11, 2001 but found that there were too many people with that name in India.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Counterfeit laundry detergent fading

On Oct. 15, 2013, I posted an entry talking about counterfeit laundry detergent. I won't say that that post went viral, but it accounts for over half (15,800 views as of today) of the total page views of this blog. I checked today and Procter & Gamble has done a good job of stopping the Internet advertising of the counterfeiters.

Looking for counterfeits today, I only found two YouTube videos that were mislabeled (which I commented on), an entry on Craigslist that I reported and a couple of entries on local advertising sites (one of which I reported; the other required me to create an account which I skipped).

So this is a celebratory post for my followers. I take joy in allowing people to avoid the rashes associated with counterfeit detergent.


Tuesday, December 9, 2014

I don't recognize this country any more

As I read the news and some Facebook posts, I feel more and more disconnected to this country, the United States of America. From the House giving sacred Apache lands away to a mining company to ruin, to Duke Energy polluting numerous streams in North Carolina (which would cost $8 billion to clean up but they aren't going to be cleaned up), to CIA interrogation techniques on a par with Hitler's SS, to a friend being stopped by police while literally walking across the street from work to home (he looked like someone they were looking for [not]), to the average CEO earning 331 times of the pay of the average worker, I don't recognize this country any more.

I vote in virtually every election but my vote simply doesn't count. Many people are swayed by hundreds of television ads encouraging them to vote against their own interests. We have troops fighting for our freedoms, we're told, but are they really fighting for the freedom of celebrities to drug and rape young women without punishment?

We lament what happened to the slaves and indigenous people in a previous century but are blind to the atrocities being committed every day in this century. To quote LeBron James, "I can't breathe."

Soon, I'm going to a Christmas concert with live singers (no "live" television with lip-synching) and try to get the cynicism out of my system. Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas, everyone.

Updated Dec. 10: Corrected LeBron's name. How embarrassing!